China: PMI to plunge – Standard Chartered

China will release manufacturing PMI numbers on 29 February. A big drop is expected by economists at Standard Chartered Bank. USD/CNY is being exchanged at 7.031. 

Key quotes

“We expect the official manufacturing PMI to plunge to 36 in February from 50 last month, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.”

“While newly confirmed cases have shown a downtrend since the beginning of February and restrictions on transport have been eased in some cities, we think disruption to production activity within the survey period will result in the official index reaching a historical low.” 

“We expect the non-manufacturing PMI to drop to 44 in February from 54.1 prior, entering contractionary territory for the first time on record, as the retail, catering and accommodation, transportation and real-estate sectors have been hit hard by the outbreak.”