Russia: Ruble to tumble on rising risk of sanctions – Rabobank

The relationship between the EU/US and Russia will remain a major driving factor for the ruble in the coming months. The bias is skewed in favour of USD/RUB and EUR/RUB extending their gains due to rising odds of a new set of Western sanctions being announced against Russia, Piotr Matys, Senior Emerging Markets and FX Strategist at Rabobank, reports.

Key quotes

“While the initial resistance in USD/RUB comes at 75.9540, and above that 77 would be the next key level to watch, USD/RUB would clear both technical threshold if the West opted for very harsh measures against Russia. Should such a negative scenario were to unfold, EUR/RUB would breach the resistance area around the 90 level and would likely revisit the 2016 high at 93.6757.”

“It seems very unlikely that tensions between the EU/US and Russia will ease substantially in the short-term. Therefore, the scope for any potential pullback in USD/RUB and EUR/RUB caused by factors that do not concern Russia directly – for example ECB officials making an attempt to prevent the euro from appreciating excessively – will remain relatively limited.”